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This whole “Real Estate Crystal Ball” question is really getting out of hand. When you look strictly at the statistics in our beautiful and prolific Silicon Valley, we presently have 34 more single family homes for sale than this time last year. It would be important to know how many homes are under contract or pending sale- well, there is only a 2.7% difference from this same time last year. These statistics which a few years back would speak volumes of what is going on in the local market, now give mere muddy rear view mirror glimpses!

Due to the fact that these statistics are full of reluctant home sellers that are awaiting a “possible” Short Saleapproval from the lender that holds the mortgage or heaven forbid, the multiple separate lenders that hold the 1st, 2nd and possibly 3rd mortgages; they are slight indicators at best. Short Sales confuse the statistics as so many of them never actually close escrow. A large percentage end up in the lender foreclosing and a very small percentage of sellers end up achieving a “Loan Modification“, a VERY small percentage. 

So how do you figure out what is REALLY going on? I know the answer is going to be way too obvious to those that understand they can’t know everything about everything- ask an active, professional, Realtor®with years of experience reading real estate markets! You would think that was a no-brainer! But time and time again, Buyers and Sellers who only purchase and/or sell a home a maximum of 3 times in their lifetimes, think they know more than reputable real estate agents and brokers.

Who else has more intimate and real time knowledge about the Real Estate market and what is presently happening than an active, professional Realtor? Where else can you take up a professional’s time, energy and pick their brain to your heart’s delight and initially not pay a dime for it? Call, email, text, tweet or face book your professional Realtor and ask them what is happening in your local market, they will be more than happy to answer! If you’d like, you can always contact us if you don’t know a Realtor you can trust- you’d be amazed how much information we can supply you with and all for the cost of a cup of coffee…. that’s what you call a pretty good deal!

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My email got flooded this morning with a number of clients and associates forwarding information claiming that there is a “3.8% Real Estate Sales Tax buried in the recently passed Health Care Initiative due to take effect in 2013″. 

My first response was “WHAT???? …  A Real Estate Sales Tax as part of a Health Care Bill?”. 

My immediate  action was to try and locate the original article purporting this information.  Here’s what I found: http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/realestate.asp.

While relieved to find that the original message received was less than correct it really made me think of all the other dis-information that is being blasted out to the public as facts each and every day.  Home Buyers and Sellers are constantly receiving information from a myriad of sources, all with some sort of spin involved, entirely dependant upon the end goal of the person delivering these so called facts.

I spoke of cliches in my last post and there being some kernel of sound reasoning behind them, so here’s another I would venture to share with you dear reader:   “Take everything you hear or read with a ‘grain of  salt’.  While my last statement may be somewhat paraphrased,  I would also add to this;  Verify – Verify – Verify, and  oh yeah… be sure and Verify … before acting on the information!  Knowledge can definitely be empowering – but only if the knowledge is correct and accurate!

So where does one go to get the straight scoop? 

Your trusted Realtor is a excellent resource to help determine if  the information being received has any basis of truth involved.  I won’t speak for all real estate agents, licensees or those who work part-time, however, of the many professional Realtors we have the pleasure of working with, all strive to have the latest correct information available for our clients.  This information is gleaned from many hours of continuing education dealing with changes in taxes, changes in local, regional and national laws and procedural changes  that affect how property transactions are conducted.  A great number of Realtors volunteer their time and energies participating in the leadership and administration of the local Real Estate Boards as well as involvement in our local  governments.  Many of these same individuals are also involved in State, and National organizations, where the primary focus is on Real Estate and the preservation of property owners rights, through the California and National Association of Realtors.  We do this not only to better prepare ourselves, we also do this to better serve and protect our greatest asset – YOU, our clients

Remember, the only question that is silly, is the one that goes unasked.

That’s my opinion – What’s yours?

O.K., first I’d have to ask you a couple of questions:

1. What day are you reading this on? If it’s any other day than the one on which I’m actually writing this, the answer could be 75% wrong!
2. What exact,  micro, super hyperlocal market are you talking about? 5 miles away, I could be at least 90% wrong!
3. What price range are you wondering about? $400K and under? $750-900K? $1MM and over? WOW, I’d have to give you 3 different answers!
4. Are you asking about Single Family Homes, Town Homes, or Condominiums?

You get the idea I’m sure, it’s really pretty complicated and we can talk about each of these 4 points more in depth in future posts. Right now let’s talk about why generalizations just don’t work in Real Estate.  The national news feeds say the market appears to be getting better and I can only wonder WHO they are listening to and WHERE that very enlightened person is reporting from. If they are in Detroit, they are possibly lying through their teeth! If they are talking about Silicon Valley, Single Family Homes listed under $400,000: BINGO! They are right on the money! So, nationally you cannot make that kind of blanket statement.

Let’s bring it home a little bit more and listen to what they are saying about the California Real Estate Market “Most California real estate markets have already hit bottom”. Makes me wonder where this person bought their crystal ball? I hope they kept the receipt! Depending on what part of California we are speaking of, MOST markets, have not even heard, much less seen the giant whose shoe is going to be the next one to drop…..

In the next post we will examine our local market more closely and expand more on the shoe industry- nos vemos soon…

Everyday is a new begining- thank goodness! And we are so blessed to be in a human centric business as Realtors. Sure we have our bouts with the machines of our trade, the computer that sends those important emails to the spam folder and the very expensive 2 year old printer that has decided Vista is a foreign language it has no intent of trying to understand- but all in all, at the end of the day- we get a positive comment from a client, we get that contract accepted or that listing sold for our clients and it’s ALL good!
I went to the HARA (Hispanic Association Of Realtors & Affliates)luncheon meeting today at Maggianos(great food BTW!) and heard a couple of speakers one from the Office of Affordable Housing from Santa Clara County and another from Wells Fargo Bank and they both shared about programs that are available (some presently funded and some awaiting funds that can help a lot of deserving first time home buyers achieve the American Dream! There is such a wealth of information out there and all we as Realtors have to do is just be open to being educated so we can better assist our clients! I’m ready ready, able and willing! And can’t wait to share this information!