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This whole “Real Estate Crystal Ball” question is really getting out of hand. When you look strictly at the statistics in our beautiful and prolific Silicon Valley, we presently have 34 more single family homes for sale than this time last year. It would be important to know how many homes are under contract or pending sale- well, there is only a 2.7% difference from this same time last year. These statistics which a few years back would speak volumes of what is going on in the local market, now give mere muddy rear view mirror glimpses!

Due to the fact that these statistics are full of reluctant home sellers that are awaiting a “possible” Short Saleapproval from the lender that holds the mortgage or heaven forbid, the multiple separate lenders that hold the 1st, 2nd and possibly 3rd mortgages; they are slight indicators at best. Short Sales confuse the statistics as so many of them never actually close escrow. A large percentage end up in the lender foreclosing and a very small percentage of sellers end up achieving a “Loan Modification“, a VERY small percentage. 

So how do you figure out what is REALLY going on? I know the answer is going to be way too obvious to those that understand they can’t know everything about everything- ask an active, professional, Realtor®with years of experience reading real estate markets! You would think that was a no-brainer! But time and time again, Buyers and Sellers who only purchase and/or sell a home a maximum of 3 times in their lifetimes, think they know more than reputable real estate agents and brokers.

Who else has more intimate and real time knowledge about the Real Estate market and what is presently happening than an active, professional Realtor? Where else can you take up a professional’s time, energy and pick their brain to your heart’s delight and initially not pay a dime for it? Call, email, text, tweet or face book your professional Realtor and ask them what is happening in your local market, they will be more than happy to answer! If you’d like, you can always contact us if you don’t know a Realtor you can trust- you’d be amazed how much information we can supply you with and all for the cost of a cup of coffee…. that’s what you call a pretty good deal!

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My first response was “WHAT???? …  A Real Estate Sales Tax as part of a Health Care Bill?”. 

My immediate  action was to try and locate the original article purporting this information.  Here’s what I found: http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/realestate.asp.

While relieved to find that the original message received was less than correct it really made me think of all the other dis-information that is being blasted out to the public as facts each and every day.  Home Buyers and Sellers are constantly receiving information from a myriad of sources, all with some sort of spin involved, entirely dependant upon the end goal of the person delivering these so called facts.

I spoke of cliches in my last post and there being some kernel of sound reasoning behind them, so here’s another I would venture to share with you dear reader:   “Take everything you hear or read with a ‘grain of  salt’.  While my last statement may be somewhat paraphrased,  I would also add to this;  Verify – Verify – Verify, and  oh yeah… be sure and Verify … before acting on the information!  Knowledge can definitely be empowering – but only if the knowledge is correct and accurate!

So where does one go to get the straight scoop? 

Your trusted Realtor is a excellent resource to help determine if  the information being received has any basis of truth involved.  I won’t speak for all real estate agents, licensees or those who work part-time, however, of the many professional Realtors we have the pleasure of working with, all strive to have the latest correct information available for our clients.  This information is gleaned from many hours of continuing education dealing with changes in taxes, changes in local, regional and national laws and procedural changes  that affect how property transactions are conducted.  A great number of Realtors volunteer their time and energies participating in the leadership and administration of the local Real Estate Boards as well as involvement in our local  governments.  Many of these same individuals are also involved in State, and National organizations, where the primary focus is on Real Estate and the preservation of property owners rights, through the California and National Association of Realtors.  We do this not only to better prepare ourselves, we also do this to better serve and protect our greatest asset – YOU, our clients

Remember, the only question that is silly, is the one that goes unasked.

That’s my opinion – What’s yours?

Our main issue is that there is not enough housing for the amount of buyers that want to purchase. Because Real Estate statistics are hyper local, any general statement that has as its basis a global statistic for the United States, has little to zero relevance to our Bay Area RE. In Detroit you can purchase a single family home for $59,0000. In the Bay Area, that will buy you a large, newer vehicle or old trailer- not even a financeable mobile home….

New construction in the Bay Area is not selling like hotcakes due to the difficulty of obtaining financing, not due to lack of demand. We have a MAJOR stumbling block right now in the financing process which is the new appraisal rules & regulations- the amount of war stories are mounting and unfortunately we are all getting wounded by it! These new rules have left us with very few good appraisers that are intelligent, professional & discerning and instead we have a bunch of uneducated, unmotivated, & unknowledgeable  people  that are willing to work for $125 for over 20 plus hours worth of work! These are the folks that are stopping transactions from going through. But then, we’ll talk more about that later….

As a secondary problem for new housing- which is just getting started- is the Chinese Drywall issue www.newsinferno.com/archives/5591 (just an example).

Indicators that ARE important are:

2/21/09     1,375 Properties available for sale in Santa Clara County 28.1% were in escrow

2//10     760      “          “       “   “    “    “     “    “      59.3% are in escrow

But even these stats are not totally correct due to the amount of Short Sales that are under contract/in escrow that will NEVER close escrow and will end up back on the market as Foreclosures…..